Pengaruh Oversubscription, Struktur Modal, dan Profitabilitas terhadap Initial Return Saham (Studi pada Perusahaan Non-Keuangan IPO di BEI Periode 2021–2025)

Abstract

This study examines the associations of oversubscription, capital structure, and profitability with first-day initial returns of non-financial companies conducting initial public offerings on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2021–2025, controlling for firm size. From 258 IPOs, six financial-sector companies were excluded. Comparable, verifiable total subscription ratios and complete core data yielded a final sample of 95 companies. Initial return was measured using the first-day closing price relative to the offering price; capital structure and profitability were proxied by the debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity. Cross-sectional multiple linear regression was estimated using IBM SPSS Statistics 31. Oversubscription was positively associated with initial return (B = 0.002155; p = 0.019), whereas debt-to-equity ratio, return on equity, and firm size were not statistically significant at the 5% level. R² was 0.085 and adjusted R² was 0.045; the overall F-test was not significant (F = 2.103; p = 0.087). Residual normality tests differed: the Lilliefors-corrected Kolmogorov–Smirnov test reported p ≥ 0.200, while Shapiro–Wilk reported p = 0.003. The findings suggest a conditional association between IPO demand intensity and initial return, not evidence of causality or fundamental quality. Demand information should complement fundamental assessment. Generalization is limited by data availability, the observed subscription-ratio range, and residual non-normality. Future research should broaden comparable demand data and assess inferential robustness.